Friday, December 16, 2016

The Unwinding: World Trade

If enough of these factions, all alike and all hating each other, come together the global economy will unravel. The networks of trade that make us a rich world, if not all of us rich people, will be dismantled and all nations will be the poorer for it. Refugees will be turned away to be crushed under brutal autocrats. Possibly shooting wars will follow. — myself, Brexit: Are We Without the Peace?
And now we have:
Trump plans - using the good offices of Nigel Farage, at least is a go-between - to boost the UK's leverage in its Brexit negotiations by moving quickly to conclude a free trade agreement with the UK. […] Trump hopes to follow, using the model of the US-UK deal to strike separate bilateral trade deals with Germany, France and down the line, in essence breaking up the EU. — Josh Marshall, Trump Has a Plan to Break Up the EU
 Right on track.

I don't know how likely of success this is — I am not sure that the Trump administration will not crash and burn — but give it 1 in 10 odds of success. No. One in six. Russian roulette odds.

No comments: