[Except that some of the pieces here have come apart, and the case for theft is weaker, though it is still strong. But it could also be that the plane flew unpiloted for hours before crashing. See CNN report.]
It has now been a week since Malaysia Airlines flight 370 disappeared. A miserable thing, but most of us assumed the plane would be found, and we could mourn the passengers and crew or, better, rejoice that they had survived. The conspiracy theorists theorized and the rest of us mocked, and the media had a field day.
Reading the news of the past day has been like a bath in ice-cold water. Why? What? This was so well planned. It was not Larry Hussein, Moe Begin, and Curly O'Dare--this was the real deal, a well-planned theft demanding a high level of technical skill, perhaps executed with help from a national intelligence agency. Was the plane stolen so that it could be used as a covert transport in parts of the world where it could be concealed? As a provocation? Are the passengers going to surface as hostages or are they all dead?
The person who hijacked MH 370 had figured out how to exploit radar vulnerabilities. We do not know why, but there is no question that whomever pulled off this sky jacking is a brilliant, fearless and ruthless person who knew how to fly a 777-200 ER, disable communication equipment and weave his way through radar defenses.
I do not believe that person went to all of this trouble just to commit suicide in the Indian Ocean.
It's been pointed out to me that the white-on-black color scheme I have been using for this blog makes it harder for older people to read. So, I have changed it. If there are still legibility problems, please let me know!
This is a short summary of what I believe to be Russia's motivations, with a bit of analysis and commentary. For an extended discussion, see my post Ukraine: The Great Game, v2.0.
Russian motivations
It's about natural gas: Russia sells and Europe buys. The Soviet natural gas industry began in Ukraine, and it is still a hub of the trade. Russia wants to control that hub and Europe would like to deny them that control.
It's also about Russia's centuries-old desire to become a naval power in the Mediterranean.
And, finally, it's about influence in the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Central Asia: with Crimea in Russian hands and Syria and Iran Russian allies, Turkey is surrounded.
On the geopolitics
We seem to have returned to a 19th century multipolar world. That period ended in global war and we must work to avoid a similar outcome.
Ethnic conflict and morality in Ukraine
Ukrainians do not deserve to be ground between Russia and the EU. The Tatars in Crimea do not deserve further punishment for the crime of being in the way of Russian ambitions. A just settlement of conflicts in the region would forbid both these things.
Looking it over, I am struck by how much effort has been spent on preserving the inequities and corruption in the system. The working poor are hit exceptionally hard, both by the refusal to expand Medicaid in 25 states and by the transition from Medicaid to subsidized insurance. People over 50 who are relatively well off are also pressed by the too-low cutoff of subsidies. In both cases, there are levels of income where small increases in income put a family in a worse situation.
Medicare part A (the free part) covers hospitalization but not ambulances in emergencies. Medicaid puts most of its clients into managed care systems, which take a cut of the expenses and are often corrupt on top of that.
And I don't have a conclusion yet, but wow are we cheap-ass, here in the USA. And yet we spend more government money on health care than any other developed country. WtF?
Original title: "Ukraine: In Which Obama Proves Yet Again He Is a Poor Negotiator"
"Obama spoke to [German Chancellor] Angela Merkel tonight about the situation in Ukraine and the possibility of Germany acting as a mediator."
Oh, very good. Try to get the other empire which invaded Ukraine (twice) to broker a deal.
"Can't anybody here play this game?"
But I cannot confirm the statement from the Telegraph, which I was reacting to. Other reports suggest that the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe is being proposed as broker, which makes a fair bit of sense.
The original Great Game was the conflict between the British and
Russian empires, played out in the territories of Central Asia. The
new Great Game seems to be between the European Union and Russia,
with the rest of the world's great powers looking on: the USA,
China, India. Fossil fuels are central.
I spent an hour online last night, discussing the geopolitics
with a German-American, who is all for US intervention. She has a
point: we don't want Russian imperialism—and it probably is that—to
go unchecked. Juan Cole points
out that Turkey is surrounded by Ukraine, Syria, and Iran.
After reading that, and thinking some more about it, I spent time
looking at the Google Earth globe and imagining a giant Go board,
stretching from the Ukraine to Indonesia.
We seem to be back in the multipolar world, where great powers
dream of empire and radicals dream of global federalism. I don't
think we get to withdraw from the game without dire consequences.
And climate change is the game timer.
Tug of Pipeline
Visualize a vast tug-of-war, with a whole crowd of creatures on the
west and a bear on the east. Instead of rope, imagine natural gas
pipelines, and most of those knotted together in the Ukraine.
Ukraine was the origin of the Soviet national gas industry in
the 1920s. Ukraine's fossil fuel economy has grown hugely since
then, and Ukraine into a nexus of pipelines and a home to
refineries and gas storage facilities. The pipelines cross the
country, carrying fuel from east to west.
Russia, because of this and because of its port on the Black Sea
and its agricultural productivity, not unnaturally wants to control
Ukraine. The European Union, fearing dependence on Russian gas
supplies, not unnaturally wants to control Ukraine. There are some
fine points, which Jerome a Paris (presumably a pseudonym) spells
out in Ukraine vs
Russia: Tales of pipelines and dependence.
Russia has twice forced genocidal famines on Ukraine, first in
1921-2 under Lenin and again in 1932-3 under Stalin. The Ukrainian
people, because of this, and because of a longer history of
oppression, hate Russia. Former Ukrainian President Viktor
Yanukovych apparently sold out to Russia, and partly because of this
Yanukovych is now a hunted man.
And, where does Russia fit in? It appears that stories of
emergent fascism in Ukraine are Russian disinformation (in this
connection, it is perhaps useful to remember that Vladimir Putin
was for many years a KGB officer.) There is a fascist faction in
Ukraine but, so far, it is not in charge. When asking about
fascism, however, I ask where it is that the government has chosen
a group to oppress, and put the full power of the state behind that
oppression. And that is Russia, with its tormenting of gays.
Conclusion
And yet the geopolitics will not be denied. Europe wants gas.
Russia has gas. Ukraine is in the middle. It seems to me that we are
returning to the global order of the 19ᵗʰ century. The world is again
multipolar, and we must again think both of the local struggles and
how these influence the relations among the great powers, and states
caught between the great powers must step carefully. Where now are
the great statesmen? Who will step forward to play the great game
again? How do we avoid the end of the first great game, which was
global war, and the drowning of our civilization in the rising seas of
a warming planet?
(This post has been corrected and combined with two other posts, to create the more complete Ukraine: The Great Game, v2.0. I am leaving it here so that links and references stand.)
I spent an hour online last night, discussing the geopolitics with a German-American, who is all for US intervention. She has a point: we don't want Russian imperialism—and it probably is that—to go unchecked. Juan Cole points out that Turkey is surrounded by Ukraine, Syria, and Iran. After reading that, and thinking some more about it, I spent time looking at the Google Earth globe and imagining a giant Go board, stretching from the Ukraine to Indonesia.
I think we are back in the multipolar world, where great powers dream of empire and radicals dream of global federalism. I don't think we get to withdraw from the game without dire consequences. And climate change is the game timer.
