The Afghanistan Withdrawal and the 2024 Elections

What cost Biden and the Democrats the election? If I had to point to a single thing, it would be the Afghanistan withdrawal, ending in August 2021. After that Biden’s approval rating fell,, the Democratic Party’s approval rating fell and they never recovered. And this was despite the failure of that war and its ignominious end being the work of the Republican Presidents W. Bush (II) and Donald Trump. Beyond that, the usual suspects: a hostile press, now openly collaborating with Donald Trump’s fascism, sexism, racism, xenophobia (“They’re eating the dogs!”), and transphobia.

So the Biden administration seemed weak, perhaps unmasculine, in the eyes of the voting public, despite the weakness being entirely that of two Republican Presidents. Let us now hear the dull thud of a lead bell being struck.

Unemployment Truthing and the 2024 Elections

The unemployment data is derived from the Current Population Survey, run by the Census Bureau; unemployment claims have nothing to do with the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment measures

There’s a lot of unemployment truthing, and not only from the right wing. Some of seems to be coming from older people who have trouble finding jobs due to age discrimination. One person who was arguing that employment was “really” down was saying friends were seeing problems, and were nearing retirement age; what they were observing was age discrimination, not a national trend.

By every measure but one, the economy improved for working people under Biden: salaries were rising faster than prices, employment was up, businesses were being founded, the Biden administration was pro-union. The single exception was shelter costs, and a group of Democratic Senators led by Elizabeth Warren has been working on that since 2019. Unfortunately, her American Housing and Economic Mobility (AHEM) Act has so far passed.

I think the chances of progressive reform have suffered a huge setback. Democrats did it. They fixed the economy. Things were getting better for working people. And it seems to have made no difference at all to the voters. Several unions even refused to endorse Harris. Their leaders, at least, know that Trump will stiff them. And yet they refused to endorse Harris. Sean O’Brien, President of the Teamsters, even gave a speech at the Republican National Convention.

If there is a progressive movement, it is so poorly organized that it does not even take a united stand against its enemies. It did not unite to support the most progressive administration in decades. If Americans intend to retain even shreds of their freedoms, they must do better.