On the Prospects of a Trump Dictatorship

With a perspective of 10 days after the election, I don’t think Harris’s loss was a result of anything special. The truth of the matter is that, as history shows, the US system is rotten at picking presidents. Trump is going to focus (he has said) on three things: mass deportations, tariffs, and revenge. The other policies will come from people around him.

    Before Trump can become a dictator, Senate Republicans and the Supreme Court will have to be turned into rubber stamps, and they are likely to resist. The coalition that backs Trump also has enormous internal conflicts: the nationalists, the evangelicals, and the techbros all hate each other. Peter Thiel (Vice President elect Vance’s patron) and Elon Musk (who is trying to install himself in the administration without any formal office) hate each other. So there’s going to be chaos and, probably, no clear victor.

    As Dr. Samantha Hancox-Li observed on Bluesky: “actually implementing totalitarianism–aka total state control over all aspects of society–requires an extremely large and efficient bureaucracy, and controlling and maintaining large institutions is itself very difficult.” Trump is an old, probably demented, man who was only ever good at salesmanship. There is the possibility that Trump will be shouldered aside by someone more competent but I think it’s going to be more like Mussolini than Hitler or Stalin. On the other hand, it seems Trump is now living for revenge – he has nothing else. He is going to want to smash things.

    The results of a Trump administration are unpredictable. There are multiple possibilities, none are good but some are less bad. Instead of voting for the lesser evil, we now have to fight for the lesser evil.

“And for my part, I shall not wholly fail of my task, though Gondor should perish, if anything passes through this night that can still grow fair or bear fruit and flower again in days to come.” – Gandalf

On AI As a Tool in a Very Large Confidence Game

 Over at the sister blog, Shinycroak:

I’ve been aware for decades that many people take voluble confidence as a sign of knowledge – it is how so many people can be got to take ideas from fiction as models for their behavior –, but it is frightening to see how generative ML models and the organizations that operate them can take advantage of this. If, as I suspect, the entire point of making these systems public is a very large confidence game, the way cryptocurrency is a very large Ponzi scheme, what then? Will there be an awakening? – Why ChatGPT?

The High Crimes of the Roberts Court

Treason, in the US Constitution, is narrowly defined.

Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort. No person shall be convicted of treason unless on the testimony of two witnesses to the same overt act, or on confession in open court.

Reflections on the Life of a Communist Publisher

Gross, Babette. Willi Münzenberg: A Political Biography. Translated by Marian Jackson. East Lansing: Michigan State University Press, 1974.

As part of what seems to be becoming a study of historical parallels, I’ve reread Babette Gross’ biography of the Communist publisher Willi Muenzenberg.

Muenzenberg and his work

Muenzenberg was an important figure whose influence is not widely understood. Muenzenberg, as one of the inventors of modern mass media propaganda, shaped the Western understanding of communism in the 1920s and 30s. The outage over the Sacco and Vanzetti trial? His work. Alternate trials of accused German Communists in the 1930s? His work. Promulgation of the claim that the Nazis set the Reichstag fire? His work. 1930s anti-fascism? Largely Muenzenberg’s work.

Early notes on the political response to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump

As Jim Wright says, “Don't make it worse. Don't spread rumors and speculation. Regard all unconfirmed reports with skepticism. Await more validated information.” So instead, I am looking at historical, not to mention hysterical, parallels.

The reactions I am seeing remind me of the historical reaction to the Reichstag fire. As far as anyone knows for certain, the fire was set by a lone wolf terrorist, but the Nazis immediately claimed it was the result of a Communist! Conspiracy! and the Communists claimed it was a Nazi! Conspiracy! To this day no-one knows if either claim is true.

The following day, German chancellor Paul von Hindenburg issued the Reichstag Fire Decree (similar to an executive order in the USA), severely limiting German civil liberties. Mass arrests of German Communists followed. A month after the fire, the Reichstag passed the Enabling Act of 1933, transferring law-making authority to the Nazi-dominated German cabinet. This is analogous to, though not exactly the same as, the Trump v. United States Supreme Court decision.

Which leaves us – where?

I think we can expect some sort of authoritarian response on the part of the House Republican Conference. The Senate Democratic majority is small, and some members might break and vote with Republicans. Would Senate Majority Leader Schumer filibuster such a bill against his own caucus? President Biden is likely to veto it, and I doubt there would be the votes to override a veto. Still, the fear of death might produce actions we cannot foresee.

The various Trump-supporting factions of the public: “Constitutional” sheriffs, paramilitaries, and so on, will be up in arms. I think we can expect intensified police action against protesters, regardless of the law.

Finally, the effect on Trump himself. Has he ever actually engaged in physical combat? There is going to be some effect, probably dramatic, and he is not a peaceful man.

PS: There were threats directed at the press at the rally. I think there will be more threats against Trump's critics. Republican leaders are already asking that charges against Trump be dropped and various media figures are advising Democrats to tone down the rhetoric.

Notes on Trump v. United States

“It is folly to think that the triumph of evil could ever be a winning side, in the sense of anyone's gaining anything by it.” – James Blish

This past Fourth I celebrated the fight to restore democracy, the fight to end the imperial presidency, and the hope of a second reconstruction.

The Court's right wing, or at least their patrons, knows that Trump has already committed serious crimes, and that is why they have ruled in favor of broad presidential immunity. One immediate consequence of the Trump immunity decision is that the Trump campaign no longer has to spend money on Trump's legal defense.

Under Trump v. US, a President will be able to loot the treasury with impunity. Trump has also been immunized against treason, which he has likely committed. Just as the biggest beneficiaries of Citizens United have been wealthy foreign governments, the biggest beneficiary here may well be Russia. Biden is now more or less in the position of Lincoln. I hope he rises to the occasion. We now have a constitutional crisis which will not be resolved by the Courts. We need a Second Reconstruction and Second Reconstruction constitutional amendments. But first, we have to get through this constitutional crisis.

Presidential immunity is mostly of value to a president who commits crimes. The rule of law cannot be restored by breaking the law. We are now operating in a space where there is no law and, assuming we win, we will have to put everything back together when we are done, a second reconstruction.

John Roberts' place in history is secure. I think I'll start calling him Roger Taney II.

Short Review: Waxman, The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Waxman, Dov. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press, 2019.

This book by a US political science professor who specializes in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is part of the Oxford University Press What Everyone Needs To Know^® series of FAQs on contemporary issues. It is an introduction to the history of the conflict, presented in FAQ, that is, question-and-answer, format. The book is divided into five chapters: “The Basics,” “The Beginning of the Conflict,” “The Arab-Israeli Wars,” “The Peace Process,” “The Occupied Territories.” In addition, there is a section of maps, an introduction, and a concluding section titled “The Long Road to Peace.” The Oxford University Press web page lists a “Suggestions for Further Reading” section in the contents, which seems to have been omitted from my copy.

The book overall is a straightforward backgrounder. Prof. Waxman has made an effort to include both Palestinian and Jewish perspectives. As a non-expert, I can only say that I do not see obvious contradictions between Waxman’s account and what I have read in the news. I would have liked to see more of the Arab, Palestinian, and Islamic thinking on the matter, but given that none of the various Arab states, let alone Palestine, have either a free press or freedom of speech, that is probably not available. For all of Israel’s faults, policy debates there take place in the open. This is not the case in much of the Arab or Islamic world.

I highly recommend the book to everyone who has only learned of the conflict in the US press, or through the propaganda of one side or the other.