The Afghanistan Withdrawal and the 2024 Elections

What cost Biden and the Democrats the election? If I had to point to a single thing, it would be the Afghanistan withdrawal, ending in August 2021. After that Biden’s approval rating fell,, the Democratic Party’s approval rating fell and they never recovered. And this was despite the failure of that war and its ignominious end being the work of the Republican Presidents W. Bush (II) and Donald Trump. Beyond that, the usual suspects: a hostile press, now openly collaborating with Donald Trump’s fascism, sexism, racism, xenophobia (“They’re eating the dogs!”), and transphobia.

So the Biden administration seemed weak, perhaps unmasculine, in the eyes of the voting public, despite the weakness being entirely that of two Republican Presidents. Let us now hear the dull thud of a lead bell being struck.

Unemployment Truthing and the 2024 Elections

The unemployment data is derived from the Current Population Survey, run by the Census Bureau; unemployment claims have nothing to do with the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment measures

There’s a lot of unemployment truthing, and not only from the right wing. Some of seems to be coming from older people who have trouble finding jobs due to age discrimination. One person who was arguing that employment was “really” down was saying friends were seeing problems, and were nearing retirement age; what they were observing was age discrimination, not a national trend.

By every measure but one, the economy improved for working people under Biden: salaries were rising faster than prices, employment was up, businesses were being founded, the Biden administration was pro-union. The single exception was shelter costs, and a group of Democratic Senators led by Elizabeth Warren has been working on that since 2019. Unfortunately, her American Housing and Economic Mobility (AHEM) Act has so far passed.

I think the chances of progressive reform have suffered a huge setback. Democrats did it. They fixed the economy. Things were getting better for working people. And it seems to have made no difference at all to the voters. Several unions even refused to endorse Harris. Their leaders, at least, know that Trump will stiff them. And yet they refused to endorse Harris. Sean O’Brien, President of the Teamsters, even gave a speech at the Republican National Convention.

If there is a progressive movement, it is so poorly organized that it does not even take a united stand against its enemies. It did not unite to support the most progressive administration in decades. If Americans intend to retain even shreds of their freedoms, they must do better.

On the Prospects of a Trump Dictatorship

With a perspective of 10 days after the election, I don’t think Harris’s loss was a result of anything special. The truth of the matter is that, as history shows, the US system is rotten at picking presidents. Trump is going to focus (he has said) on three things: mass deportations, tariffs, and revenge. The other policies will come from people around him.

    Before Trump can become a dictator, Senate Republicans and the Supreme Court will have to be turned into rubber stamps, and they are likely to resist. The coalition that backs Trump also has enormous internal conflicts: the nationalists, the evangelicals, and the techbros all hate each other. Peter Thiel (Vice President elect Vance’s patron) and Elon Musk (who is trying to install himself in the administration without any formal office) hate each other. So there’s going to be chaos and, probably, no clear victor.

    As Dr. Samantha Hancox-Li observed on Bluesky: “actually implementing totalitarianism–aka total state control over all aspects of society–requires an extremely large and efficient bureaucracy, and controlling and maintaining large institutions is itself very difficult.” Trump is an old, probably demented, man who was only ever good at salesmanship. There is the possibility that Trump will be shouldered aside by someone more competent but I think it’s going to be more like Mussolini than Hitler or Stalin. On the other hand, it seems Trump is now living for revenge – he has nothing else. He is going to want to smash things.

    The results of a Trump administration are unpredictable. There are multiple possibilities, none are good but some are less bad. Instead of voting for the lesser evil, we now have to fight for the lesser evil.

“And for my part, I shall not wholly fail of my task, though Gondor should perish, if anything passes through this night that can still grow fair or bear fruit and flower again in days to come.” – Gandalf

On AI As a Tool in a Very Large Confidence Game

 Over at the sister blog, Shinycroak:

I’ve been aware for decades that many people take voluble confidence as a sign of knowledge – it is how so many people can be got to take ideas from fiction as models for their behavior –, but it is frightening to see how generative ML models and the organizations that operate them can take advantage of this. If, as I suspect, the entire point of making these systems public is a very large confidence game, the way cryptocurrency is a very large Ponzi scheme, what then? Will there be an awakening? – Why ChatGPT?

The High Crimes of the Roberts Court

Treason, in the US Constitution, is narrowly defined.

Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort. No person shall be convicted of treason unless on the testimony of two witnesses to the same overt act, or on confession in open court.

Reflections on the Life of a Communist Publisher

Gross, Babette. Willi Münzenberg: A Political Biography. Translated by Marian Jackson. East Lansing: Michigan State University Press, 1974.

As part of what seems to be becoming a study of historical parallels, I’ve reread Babette Gross’ biography of the Communist publisher Willi Muenzenberg.

Muenzenberg and his work

Muenzenberg was an important figure whose influence is not widely understood. Muenzenberg, as one of the inventors of modern mass media propaganda, shaped the Western understanding of communism in the 1920s and 30s. The outage over the Sacco and Vanzetti trial? His work. Alternate trials of accused German Communists in the 1930s? His work. Promulgation of the claim that the Nazis set the Reichstag fire? His work. 1930s anti-fascism? Largely Muenzenberg’s work.

Early notes on the political response to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump

As Jim Wright says, “Don't make it worse. Don't spread rumors and speculation. Regard all unconfirmed reports with skepticism. Await more validated information.” So instead, I am looking at historical, not to mention hysterical, parallels.

The reactions I am seeing remind me of the historical reaction to the Reichstag fire. As far as anyone knows for certain, the fire was set by a lone wolf terrorist, but the Nazis immediately claimed it was the result of a Communist! Conspiracy! and the Communists claimed it was a Nazi! Conspiracy! To this day no-one knows if either claim is true.

The following day, German chancellor Paul von Hindenburg issued the Reichstag Fire Decree (similar to an executive order in the USA), severely limiting German civil liberties. Mass arrests of German Communists followed. A month after the fire, the Reichstag passed the Enabling Act of 1933, transferring law-making authority to the Nazi-dominated German cabinet. This is analogous to, though not exactly the same as, the Trump v. United States Supreme Court decision.

Which leaves us – where?

I think we can expect some sort of authoritarian response on the part of the House Republican Conference. The Senate Democratic majority is small, and some members might break and vote with Republicans. Would Senate Majority Leader Schumer filibuster such a bill against his own caucus? President Biden is likely to veto it, and I doubt there would be the votes to override a veto. Still, the fear of death might produce actions we cannot foresee.

The various Trump-supporting factions of the public: “Constitutional” sheriffs, paramilitaries, and so on, will be up in arms. I think we can expect intensified police action against protesters, regardless of the law.

Finally, the effect on Trump himself. Has he ever actually engaged in physical combat? There is going to be some effect, probably dramatic, and he is not a peaceful man.

PS: There were threats directed at the press at the rally. I think there will be more threats against Trump's critics. Republican leaders are already asking that charges against Trump be dropped and various media figures are advising Democrats to tone down the rhetoric.