Apocalypse, Revolution, Palingenesis

Apocalypse, revolution, palingenesis – these are all names for the same thing, used by different groups. The Christian nationalists, they want the Apocalypse, they want the world to end so they can all go to heaven. The radical left wants the Revolution, they want the world to end so they can build their communist or perhaps anarchist order. The techbros want the Singularity, so that everyone can be uploaded to digital heaven.

The Second Civil War Is On

 Reporting from Bluesky, with a few comments.

Muenzenberg and the Revolution

I have now read the three books available in English on the influential communist propagandist Willi Müzenberg, who shaped so much discourse in the 20th century, and continues to shape our ideas of protest and political change. I find the whole history of 20th century European Communism both fascinating and discouraging. It seems to me that the problems and failings of his work and the wider problems and failings of international Communism have become our problems, and I would like to avoid repeating the mistakes of 20th century reform and radical movements.

O Canada? On Elections in Western Democracies in Our Time

Well good, the Trumpy conservative party lost in Canada. But they didn't lose by that much! They only lost because of gross abuses on the part of Donald Trump. The voters had to be metaphorically hit over the head with how awful the fascists were. In the end what tipped the balance wasn't violations of civil rights or even economic depredations; Trump threatened to invade Canada.

Something is seriously wrong with, apparently, all Western democracies.

Where is the Resistance?

Historians are going to be arguing about what has brought us to this point for a long time, but one thing has been the Democratic Party’s suppressing its activist base. The resistance has popular support, a few political leaders, legislators (in the minority), and judges and lawyers, but also needed now are leaders and direct action. They need people like the old union leaders and rank-and-file; people willing to organize and carry out sit-ins, sit-down strikes, guards who are loyal to them and can’t easily be bought, people willing to stand up when the cops, DOGE’s goons, and the ICE thugs show up. They ought to have been ready to go the moment Trump was inaugurated. Now there have been many losses and they face a harder task.

Butlerian jihad now!

The Trump formula is apparently what you get if you ask ChatGPT and other AI models to make tariff policy.—Kthugman

But ideas can't hurt anyone!' 'I turned things into numbers to understand them, but they just want to control,' Simon said bitterly. 'They burrowed into my numbers like—' He screamed.—Terry Pratchett, Equal Rites.

The Three Coups

(This is a two weeks old but still, I think, useful.)

Watching the incoherence coming out of DC at this time there seem to be a bewildering number of policy initiatives which don’t seem to make any sense. This is because there are three different factions, competing, and they are all putting their oars in the water and trying to row the ship of state off in different directions. First, there’s Trump’s personal ideology of xenophobia, revenge, conquest, and betrayal. Second, there’s Russ Vought’s Christian nationalist Project 2025 coup. Third, there’s Elon Musk’s Nazi techbro coup.

The Failure of the Imperial Presidency

The Trump presidencies have laid bare a fact of the imperial presidency: with the president so powerful, the United States depends on an honest competent president at the head of the executive branch—the hope of a good king. This is especially important in foreign policy where a president has broad latitude, but it is also important in domestic policy where chief executive of the federal government has huge power to control how the government operates even when they stay within constitutional limits. We had an 80 year run, but it was inevitable that sooner or later someone of bad will would become president. Historically most presidents have been mediocrities; some have been truly awful. A corrupted Supreme Court and a Senate republican caucus full of cowards, incompetents, and perhaps even traitors helped.

If the United States comes out of this mess with anything like a democracy, I hope we consider governmental forms that are less vulnerable to the failings of a single individual.

The Compromise of 2025

To live between a rock
And a hard place
In between time —
Cruising in prime time —
Soaking up the cathode rays
– Rush, “Between the Wheels”

On AI and the Techbro Coup

Over on Fedi, Icelandic consultant Baldur Bjarnason writes, citing the following articles:

• ‘Things Are Going to Get Intense:’ How a Musk Ally Plans to Push AI on the Government (404 Media)
• Elon Musk’s DOGE Is Working on a Custom Chatbot Called GSAi (WIRED, paywall)

And comments:

Automated decision-making creates accountability sinks that can be used to excuse horrifying decisions. Much of the US budget is literally responsible for keeping people alive or protecting them from harm. Automated decision-making creates accountability sinks that can be used to excuse horrifying decisions. It may feel unfair to many of you, but this is going to be the legacy of anybody who is still working in “AI.” This is going to be the inheritance you leave to the future and nothing you do is likely to come close to offsetting it.

At Shinycroak: Nuclear Fusion, "AI," and Big Science

It's complicated. The post straddles the line between economics and politics, but I put it up there for Reasons.

Notes From the First Day of the Coup

(Distilled from my Bluesky posts)

MAGA: Who's Your Daddy?

I was reflecting on Driftglass’ characterization of Republicans as “reprogrammable meatbags” – people who have been soaked in right-wing propaganda for so long that they believe whatever their media or their church or Donald Trump) tells them. I realized this is what traumatized people do, this is what children do: believe only close family or trusted adults rather, even, than their own thinking or even experience. So taking this thought seriously, is that what happens? Are these people somehow so broken that their boundaries revert to childlike patterns?

Garland, Biden, Harris, and Trump

Should Merrick Garland have jailed Trump before the election? Could he? The legal experts say no, not without breaking the law. The Roberts Court, aka Taney Court II, put up a roadblock. Marcy Wheeler:

The Afghanistan Withdrawal and the 2024 Elections

What cost Biden and the Democrats the election? If I had to point to a single thing, it would be the Afghanistan withdrawal, ending in August 2021. After that Biden’s approval rating fell,, the Democratic Party’s approval rating fell and they never recovered. And this was despite the failure of that war and its ignominious end being the work of the Republican Presidents W. Bush (II) and Donald Trump. Beyond that, the usual suspects: a hostile press, now openly collaborating with Donald Trump’s fascism, sexism, racism, xenophobia (“They’re eating the dogs!”), and transphobia.

So the Biden administration seemed weak, perhaps unmasculine, in the eyes of the voting public, despite the weakness being entirely that of two Republican Presidents. Let us now hear the dull thud of a lead bell being struck.

Unemployment Truthing and the 2024 Elections

The unemployment data is derived from the Current Population Survey, run by the Census Bureau; unemployment claims have nothing to do with the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment measures

There’s a lot of unemployment truthing, and not only from the right wing. Some of seems to be coming from older people who have trouble finding jobs due to age discrimination. One person who was arguing that employment was “really” down was saying friends were seeing problems, and were nearing retirement age; what they were observing was age discrimination, not a national trend.

By every measure but one, the economy improved for working people under Biden: salaries were rising faster than prices, employment was up, businesses were being founded, the Biden administration was pro-union. The single exception was shelter costs, and a group of Democratic Senators led by Elizabeth Warren has been working on that since 2019. Unfortunately, her American Housing and Economic Mobility (AHEM) Act has so far passed.

I think the chances of progressive reform have suffered a huge setback. Democrats did it. They fixed the economy. Things were getting better for working people. And it seems to have made no difference at all to the voters. Several unions even refused to endorse Harris. Their leaders, at least, know that Trump will stiff them. And yet they refused to endorse Harris. Sean O’Brien, President of the Teamsters, even gave a speech at the Republican National Convention.

If there is a progressive movement, it is so poorly organized that it does not even take a united stand against its enemies. It did not unite to support the most progressive administration in decades. If Americans intend to retain even shreds of their freedoms, they must do better.