Trump v CASA is a replay of Dred Scot, and Trump’s tariffs are a replay of McKinley’s. The Big Baleful Bill has just passed. What does this mean for the coming years?
Facets
Elections
Elections will be lit in 2026 and 2028. The primary victory of Zohran Mamdani in New York City, with its astonishing youth turnout may be a harbinger. Or perhaps not. Who knows how the general election will go? I hope New Yorkers have more sense than to elect a sex pest and mass murderer, or a bad cop.
In the election of 1876, there was extensive vote suppression in the South. In South Carolina, 101% of eligible voters voted, and 150 Black Republicans were murdered. We can expect vote suppression again in the coming elections.
There has been a drop in GDP in the past quarter; if, as seems likely, there is a drop in this quarter, the economy will most likely be in recession. Voters will resent the rise in prices of consumer goods brought on by Trump’s tariffs and this will influence the 2026 election. In addition, the United States is now kinda sorta at war. This is unpredicatable; in 2026, attacks on the USA might swing support to the Republicans, or to the Democrats. In 2028, Trump will, if he is at all able, most likely run again despite this being unconstitutional and, again, it is unpredictable how the public will respond, and if the election will be free.
The McKinley Tariffs
The McKinley tariffs cost the Republicans their Congressional majority in 1892. The tariffs, combined with rampant speculation and a rigid adherence to the metallic currency, led to the Panic of 1893, which led to the largest depression in the United States before the Great Depression of the 1930s. McKinley lost his Presidency to Grover Cleveland, who decided to end the use of silver to back the currency, contracting the money supply. Cleveland also lobbied to reduce McKinley’s tariffs; the bill turned into a Christmas tree bill, which Cleveland nonetheless allowed to become law.1 These actions had countervailing effects and the depression which began in 1893 did not end until 1897.2
If this history is any guide, the Trump tariffs, and Trump’s other economic depredations, are likely to lead to a strong voter response, but policy changes are not necessarily going to be positive. It will be hard to rescind the tariffs and there will be a strong push for contractionary economic policies; the lessons of the strong Biden economy were never accepted.
Trump v CASA
In Trump v CASA, the Supreme Court gave a procedural ruling that has the effect of allow the Trump administration to declare the children of immigrants non-citizens and exile them, despite the plain language of the 14th amendment and 120 years of precedent. As if that is not enough, the procedural change is broad enough to apply to any executive order, so that only the Supreme Court may decide on such matters.3 The broader implications of the decision are for another day. This immediate consequences, however, echo those of Dred Scott v Sanford, which declared that people of African descent were not and never could be citizens.
What happened historically? Dred Scott was handed down in 1857. In 1858, Lincoln gave his famous House Divided Speech. In 1861, after a contentious election which swept Lincoln to the Presidency, the Civil War began.
Situation
Well.
Conflict has already begun. It is a different conflict than the Civil War of 1861-65. Los Angeles is the bellwether. With the additional funding from the bill just passed, ICE will expand operations to most major cities. There will be physical conflict; ICE, at least will be violent. The workers in the United States, the physical laborers, are largely undocumented aliens, which this administration intends to deport. Crops are rotting in the fields. In many places, construction will stop, as well as numerous local systems as the immigrants either hide or are removed. A hard recession, possibly even a depression, seems likely. The cuts in food aid, also just passed, will lead to food insecurity if not outright starvation. Finally, the anti-vaccination and anti-public-health stance of the Department of Health and Human Services will spread disease. And then…?
A repeal of Trump’s tariffs is likely to proceed similarly; there will be many interest groups pushing and pulling.↩︎
According to the Federal Reserve’s history site, “In the fall [of 1893], the banking panic ended. Gold inflows from Europe lowered interest rates. Banks resumed operations. Cash and credit resumed lubricating the wheels of commerce and industry. Nevertheless, the economy remained in recession until the following summer. According to estimates by Andrew Jalil and Charles Hoffman, industrial production fell by 15.3 percent between 1892 and 1894, and unemployment rose to between 17 and 19 percent. After a brief pause, the economy slumped into recession again in late 1895 and did not fully recover until mid-1897.”↩︎
Analysis from Mark Joesph Stern, The Supreme Court’s Birthright Citizenship Ruling Could Not Be More Disastrous.↩︎
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