The Countercoup and the Trials After

Back in August, I wrote:

Historically, it is not the government or elected officials that have resisted the various attempts, some successful, some not, to turn the US government into an authoritarian aristocratic state; it is the people. Republicanism, in the original sense of the word, runs deep in the US public. The Vietnam war was not ended by the federal bureaucracy or Congress; it was a popular movement that ended it. The prosecutions Maddow describes in Ultra failed, but it was reported and the public voted out the Nazi collaborators in Congress. Union veterans were the strongest opponents of compromises with the racists of the South. And now the major opposition to Trump and the neo-fascist Republican Party is not elected officials or federal bureaucrats; it is a broad public coalition.

Planning for Victory

Liberals must begin planning for victory. If, as seems likely, our side wins the next election, we will have won a battle, not the war. Many problems will remain that will not be easily resolved.

The Flapping of Angry Butterfly Wings, Oct 24

Various short remarks I posted on Bluesky.

The Age of the Crackpot

“When Man ceases to worship God, he does not worship nothing, but instead worships everything.”–attributed to Chesterton

The failure of authority, and not only religious authority, has left people vulnerable to all manner of woo. One may reasonably reject authority but one must not then replace it with superstition.

The Unfree Press

We have an odd sort of unfree press in the USA. People can, within broad limits, publish just about anything, but getting a wide audience? There are four major book publishers and a handful of mass media conglomerates, all with right-wing to far right ownership. What gets wide distribution is circumscribed, and much of what is published is vacuous. Even before “AI,” public discourse was full of blither. People are desperate for anything real to hang on to, and if they can’t find anything real, they’ll hang on to anything, even crazy things. The damaged US educational system doesn’t help, either; people need tools that will let them distinguish truth from falsehood, and the educational system doesn’t mostly give them those tools.

Harry Potter and the Bones of Empire

Two days ago “Big names in AI and Silicon Valley tech announced yesterday that they’re launching a boarding academy for 16 to 22 year olds.” (Faine Greenwood) And I commented, “This is a kind of modernized version of the English boarding school and those were actually pretty horrible. I mean, it’s fun to read boarding schools stories but think about what it was like to live them out! […] My spouse has an absolutely scathing critique of [the Harry Potter] books. I think I’m going to ask them to tell me again and write it out as a blog post!”

And I did, I interviewed them, and here is the result.

The Flapping of Angry Butterfly Wings, August 14, 2026

Wrote these exceptionally angry Bluesky posts over the past few days

• We seem to be suffering—the world seems to be suffering—a moral apocalypse. USAID cuts. Slavery in China. Genocide in Sudan. Environmental destruction. The list goes on and on. The wealthiest tech CEOs—Musk, Thiel, Bezos, Zuck—as well as many lesser figures are moral voids.

On the Countercoup, and the Trials After

“Stop saying history will judge them. Judge them now. With judges.”—Joe Sandow, writing at the beginning of the Biden Administration

We forget that the Nuremberg trials were military tribunals; the victors in a war enforcing their will upon the losers. Some of the victors chose to do so by exacting justice but nothing constrained them to do so; the Soviets wanted to have show trials but failed to get the other participants to agree.

At Nuremberg law was created to prosecute the crimes of the Nazis. “Crimes against humanity” was invented to describe heinous acts previously unimagined. These concepts led to the writing, decades later, of the Rome Statute and the creation of the International Criminal Court.

Review: Griffin, The Nature of Fascism

Griffin, Roger. The Nature of Fascism. St. Martin’s Press, 1991.

A remarkable and remarkably dense book on the nature of fascism. Griffin, who seems to have read everything about fascist, protofascist, and reactionary movements of the first half of the 20th century provides what is probably the best working definition of fascism: palingenetic ultranationalism; that is, a movement based on the idea of nationalist rebirth of a people. I’m not equipped to judge such a densely researched and reasoned book, literally the densest non-mathematical book I have ever encountered, but Griffin is widely respected, except among Marxist historians.

Brief Remarks on the US-Iran War

(I seem to be laying out a foreign policy position. May the ghost of George F Kennan guide me.)

Brief Remarks on Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan

Abdul El-Sayed appears to be an actually committed public health policy expert and advocate but as a politician he does not seem to care very much about people. The comparison, perhaps, is with Elizabeth Warren; genuinely good on economic issues but rotten on cultural issues. I don't think AeS appreciates the danger of the demons he has summoned with his antisemitic rhetoric or that he has alienated black voters in Michigan, a significant voting bloc.

On balance I want him in the Senate. I think his voice and vote on health policy will be valuable, but we are going to have to hold his feet to the fire on other issues, and he may not win because he's alienated an important group of voters.

In Defense of Bernie Sanders

I’ve been seeing a lot of shade thrown at Bernie Sanders, including a lot of outright lies, and I figured I’d gather up some of the positives, and lay them down here, so that there’s a record of them in a place I can refer to; I’m tired of reciting them, and getting nasty incoherent comments in reply. I also think that, despite these genuine positives, Sanders sometimes is a poor judge of character, as we have seen in his recent endorsements, and the man is 84, and perhaps losing his touch. But I remember, I still see sometimes, his critics lying about him, and twisting everything positive said about the man into a reason to hate him. That’s reading the sources the way fundamentalists read the bible, and the only possible result of such readings is to reinforce the readers’ biases. So I’ve gathered these up for people who haven’t seen some of them, and so I have a record for my own use.

AIPAC Does Not Make US Israeli Policy

[This was directed to someone who has bought into several antisemitic conspiracy theories. I fear I have lost her; this sort of thinking takes over people's minds.]

The Flapping of Butterfly Wings, July 28

There's some victim blaming going here. The party that failed to stop fascism partly failed to stop fascism because people tried very hard to keep it from stopping fascism. The Democrats have not had a substantial Congressional majority since, I think, the year 2000. If the voters wanted to vote out the Republicans--and remember, the Republicans stole the 2000 Presidential election--they could have done so at any time. We have Republican dominance because people voted for them. We can argue over why; generally I think racism and sexism, emerging in reaction to the successes of women's rights and Black rights in the 1960s handed the control of the country to racist misogynist reactionaries, who are now repeating the mistakes of the First Gilded Age, with added environmental and foreign policy mistakes.

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Marxist Speculations on the Vibecession

🎶 Marat we’re poor, and the poor stay poor / Marat don’t make us wait any more / We want our rights, and we don’t care how! / We want a revolution…now!—Marat/Sade

There is a long-standing discussion of why it was that the 2024 US public believed that the economy was poor when in fact it was the envy of the world, people at the lowest income levels were making gains, and the labor market was the best in a generation.

Slavery and the Wheel

Two notes to critics of the United States on why the founding of the United States was such a radical break, despite all flaws, with a few notes on the broader historical context.

“Small wheel turning by the fire and rod
Big wheel turning by the grace of God
Every time that wheel turn round
Bound to cover just a little more ground”
The Wheel

"AI:" Draining the Wellsprings

In last Wednesday's Richardson/Krugman discussion, extractive industries and "AI" were touched on briefly and I got to thinking about "AI." It is extractive, and what it extracts is culture. It seems that through the miracles of modern technology, the very rich have found a way to drain the wellsprings of culture.

The Flapping of Butterfly Wings: July 11

Various Bluesky remarks I wish to preserve

Freedom 250: Chaos on the National Mall

So, there’s a thunderstorm alert, the revelers have been asked to take shelter. Some are refusing. Almost all the buildings are closed, since it’s a holiday. Some have taken shelter in the National Museum of African American History and Culture, prompting the remark that conservatives have finally been brought to visit there. The Chinese scholars are saying Heaven has stripped us of its Mandate. The Jews are talking about Jewish space lasers.

Boize moi!

To a Socialist, on the Infiltration of the National DSA

The socialist Nathan Newman has written a good explainer on how it is that the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) have both produced one of the worst policy platforms and some of the best politicians of our time. The entire piece is worth reading.

Notes on Trump v Slaughter

Today the Roberts Court handed down a decision in Trump v Slaughter in which the Six Oathbreakers of the Roberts Court decided that regulatory agencies couldn’t possible be independent of the king, er, President unless they were the Federal Reserve and also made a shout-out to the traitors of the Confederacy. Paul Krugman remarked that this decision “makes it extremely difficult for the economy to function.” There’s a lot of legal and economic commentary by experts, and I am here adding a few notes of my own.

Antifa, or Glonzo and the Anarchists

A short piece, intended to clear the air.

If 25% of the population believed that a creature called ‘Glonzo’ caused high power prices by chewing through transmission lines, any competent politician would be negligent in not trying to find a way to exploit this. – William B. Fuckley

Antifa shows up ready to rumble; the fascists show up ready to kill. – Raven Onthill

24 Hours of Epic Snark

The past 24 hours have really been something; I think I’ve posted more snark on Bluesky than I have in any previous day. I’ve collected the posts here, to establish a baseline.

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Why do I even bother doing theory when we’re going to be hip-deep in ICE, and there’s probably going to be a global recession that will make 2008 look like a picnic?

Everyone brace!

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Hantavirus

Unlike SARS-2 before it emerged, hantavirus is known and has been studied; it is nowhere near as contagious as covid. But…

Reflections on the Coup and International Relations

The world knows this is not just Trump’s work. Trump was allowed to become president a second time after inciting a treasonous insurrection. A majority of both houses of Congress and Supreme Court justices have supported him in his depredations. Until these demons are exorcised, the United States is not trustworthy and wise foreign leaders will not see it as so.

The United States is not going to be forgiven the disaster this war with Iran is causing, not for generations. China may rise to their newfound preeminence, as the United States did after World War II, but that is going to take time; they will not change while Xi Jinping is dictator.

The Problems Facing the Next Democratic Administration

Should the Democrats retake power in 2029, they will be in a situation where the best courses of action will be deeply unpopular.

My Country is Melting

Trump's Iran war—our Iran war—, if it drags on, will throw East and South Asia into China's arms, and that's not a place they want to be. Even China may come to regret it, though I think right now they see it as an opportunity. Meantime, we have a recession coming. And this loss means that the jihadis of Iran will probably have a great deal of funding to pursue their madness.

My country is melting.

Trade in Our Time

I'm at the resource war. I'm at the trade war. I'm at the combination resource war trade war.—lumpyprol

If enough of these factions, all alike and all hating each other, come together the global economy will unravel. The networks of trade that make us a rich world, if not all of us rich people, will be dismantled and all nations will be the poorer for it.—Raven Onthill, July 2016

It seems that we now have trade in our time, but I think that time is short. The US-Iran-Israel ceasefire only kicks the can down the road. The Arab Gulf states resent paying tolls to Iran. Iran will continue to assert its authority in the future, possibly even undertake jihad. Other nations that sit astride trade routes will also assert their power. Oh, yes, and China and the US are now sqaubbling over control of the Panama Canal.

It seems likely that in the long run, global trade will be much reduced. Further shooting wars wars seem possible.

Starting Points: The Persian Gulf

I hope the book helps readers grasp the bigger picture of this extraordinary place. The Gulf is part of a global story that is more than 5000 years old, a story of Africans, South Asians, Arabs, Greeks, Persians, Baluchis, Sufis, Nestorians, Mandaeans and Buddhists. Understanding the diversity of its people, and the long history of mutual interactions reveals that the conflict between Shia/Sunni, Iran and Arabia in the news today was not always the norm. Bridging the Gulf can help us build a bridge at the center of history.—Allen James Fromherz

Horrors of the 21st Century

• Renewable energy systems built on slavery.

The "Sustainable" Slave Economy

“Progress has different meanings for different people… what was progress for white people was enslavement and further degradation for African Americans.”—Prof. Margaret Washington, Cornell University

I am horrified at how many people are lauding the Chinese achievements in photovoltaic and electric vehicles without any commentary on the slave system they are built on. The sustainable energy transition is driving the expansion of the slave system in China, much as the invention of the cotton gin drove the expansion of the slave system in the antebellum United States, and if we don't act now, we are going to end up with a global economy built in part on slavery.

On Criticizing Chinese Slavery

Publicly criticizing slavery in China must be a lot like publicly criticizing the Holodomor and Stalin's purges back in the day. So much of the intelligensia was convinced that the Soviet Union was the hope of the future and actually they were this brutal horror. And now people are convinced China is the hope of the future and they're this slave power.

The Holy Wars of Modern Fascism

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which now governs Iran, is led by bellicose fanatics who dream of jihad, not in the sense of a personal struggle against evil, but rather in the sense of conquest. They are likely to fail in their dreams, but they can do a great deal of harm in the failing. But they are not much different from

The Global Trade War Is Here

So, the Iranian government, which is the consolidated result of the most radical elements of Iran, is now apparently planning on tolling all traffic through the Persian Gulf. I expect them to try to strangle the Arab states of the Gulf, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, which they regard as heretics. So long freedom of navigation.

Crunch Time for Renewable Energy Deployment

Trump and Netanyahu’s ill-considered war on Iran has brought us to a situation where 20% of the world’s oil supply is bottled up in the Persian Gulf. If the war continues–and none of the participants show signs of backing down–the price of crude oil is expected to double over time. Other raw materials are bottled up in the Gulf as well, fertilizer, and helium, important for chip manufacture.

Global Brain Sclerosis and the Conscience of the World

Over on Bluesky @henrythedog.bsky.social comments:

One thing I haven't seen enough people talk about is Iran's infrastructure was already at the edge of falling apart, Tehran already has a serious water shortage problem, bombing and the disruption of government services and control could push it over the edge unleashing a massive humanitarian crisis.

This is unconscionable. Even the worst administrations of my life would not have risked such a thing, and leads to the following reflection:

This disastrous administration is showing us that the United States was the conscience of the world, is no longer, and so far no other country is stepping up. It was also the biggest charitable organization in the world and the keeper of the peace. With the predominance of fascists in the United States, it is as if the brain of the world has had a stroke, and part of it is gone. Considering that multiple Western nations have fascist parties, maybe it's correct to say that the brain of the world has a vascular disorder, leading to multiple TIAs in addition to a major stroke.

“Ye are the salt of the earth: but if the salt have lost its savour, from where shall it be salted?”

The Choice of Publisher: X, Substack, and All

The problem of staying on X is that one becomes part of the network and, even if you are not yourself a white supremacist or Nazi, people who follow you are recruited onto a site where they will propagandized. It’s been observed that the propaganda is effective:

The Coup: Gray Thoughts on a Gray Day

• It is a huge failure of US democracy that there was no preparation for this coup; we have known it was in the offing for 25 years.

Late Reflections on the Banning of Will Stancil from Minneapolis Resistance Signal Groups

Since I seem to be having a subpost discussion of secret-keeping in political movements, yes, sometimes it is necessary, but it tends to take over, and make people suspicious of anyone not in the in-group. All the stuff that is a staple of spy novels (and court romances) applies. There are risks of infiltration, subversion, … and betrayal. All the nasty dynamics of in-group politics can operate.

On Non-Partisanship In Media

What is non-partisan, when one party is normal, and the other is fascist? The solution that our press has used for decades is to report the sides of partisan disputes as if each party is of equal credibility; to place the gross failings of the Republican Party and the minor failings of the Democratic Party as equal. The practical result of that sort of "non-partisanship" is not at all non-partisan; it ends up defending the indefensible and is a large part of how we have ended up here.

Lindsay Beyerstein: On Epstein and His Circle

Lindsay Beyerstein, writing on Bluesky on Feb 8, 2026:

Calling the Epstein [circle] a pedophilia ring lets society off too easy. What the Epstein files reveal is the impunity of the elite class to do anything they want—though, in point of fact, most don't want to have sex with children. I don't think Epstein was practicing blackmail on an industrial scale. After reading thousands of his emails, there's no hint of that. The people in his orbit adored him and begged to be included. They were having a great time. Epstein may well have blackmailed people; but that wasn't his business model. Once you get a feel for who the most blackmailable motherfuckers in his circle are, it's astonishing how well they continue to get along with Epstein for years and years. They want to come over and hang out, they delight in being invited to his events, they lavish praise on him. I wouldn't put any bad act past Jeffrey Epstein, he was a sociopath who committed all kinds of crimes. But when you look at the evidence in total, it doesn't seem like blackmail was Epstein's default. He was honey over vinegar for powerful men.

Used by permission.

Slavery and Solar Panels Bibliography

On the way to writing that short piece on slavery and solar panels, I looked at quite a few reports and articles. Here's a bibliography, for anyone interested.

Xinjiang: Slavery and Solar Panels

In Xinjiang, western China, the polysilicon that is used the in the inexpensive photovoltaic panels that have become so widespread is manufactured. The people who manufacture it are members of an Islamic ethnicity called Uyghurs,¹ and they are enslaved by the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This is widely reported, but is most clearly laid out in Prof. Laura Murphy’s extensively-researched report, In Broad Daylight² from the Helena Kennedy Centre for International Justice (HKC) at the United Kingdom’s Sheffield Hallam University.³

A Few Notes on Venezuela

• Chalk up another ignominiously lost destabilizing war. As with Iraq, it may take a while for the failure to become clear, but I do not see any path to a meaningful victory.
• Trump has badmouthed Nobel winner Machado in favor of Maduro's VP, Delcy Rodríguez, who has not returned the favor.
• Venezuelan oil is heavy sour crude and their refineries are decaying; there's no profit in that oil now or in less than a decade, probably ever. Oil is not going to pay for this.