At Shinycroak: Nuclear Fusion, "AI," and Big Science

It's complicated. The post straddles the line between economics and politics, but I put it up there for Reasons.

Notes From the First Day of the Coup

(Distilled from my Bluesky posts)

MAGA: Who's Your Daddy?

I was reflecting on Driftglass’ characterization of Republicans as “reprogrammable meatbags” – people who have been soaked in right-wing propaganda for so long that they believe whatever their media or their church or Donald Trump) tells them. I realized this is what traumatized people do, this is what children do: believe only close family or trusted adults rather, even, than their own thinking or even experience. So taking this thought seriously, is that what happens? Are these people somehow so broken that their boundaries revert to childlike patterns?

Garland, Biden, Harris, and Trump

Should Merrick Garland have jailed Trump before the election? Could he? The legal experts say no, not without breaking the law. The Roberts Court, aka Taney Court II, put up a roadblock. Marcy Wheeler:

The Afghanistan Withdrawal and the 2024 Elections

What cost Biden and the Democrats the election? If I had to point to a single thing, it would be the Afghanistan withdrawal, ending in August 2021. After that Biden’s approval rating fell,, the Democratic Party’s approval rating fell and they never recovered. And this was despite the failure of that war and its ignominious end being the work of the Republican Presidents W. Bush (II) and Donald Trump. Beyond that, the usual suspects: a hostile press, now openly collaborating with Donald Trump’s fascism, sexism, racism, xenophobia (“They’re eating the dogs!”), and transphobia.

So the Biden administration seemed weak, perhaps unmasculine, in the eyes of the voting public, despite the weakness being entirely that of two Republican Presidents. Let us now hear the dull thud of a lead bell being struck.

Unemployment Truthing and the 2024 Elections

The unemployment data is derived from the Current Population Survey, run by the Census Bureau; unemployment claims have nothing to do with the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment measures

There’s a lot of unemployment truthing, and not only from the right wing. Some of seems to be coming from older people who have trouble finding jobs due to age discrimination. One person who was arguing that employment was “really” down was saying friends were seeing problems, and were nearing retirement age; what they were observing was age discrimination, not a national trend.

By every measure but one, the economy improved for working people under Biden: salaries were rising faster than prices, employment was up, businesses were being founded, the Biden administration was pro-union. The single exception was shelter costs, and a group of Democratic Senators led by Elizabeth Warren has been working on that since 2019. Unfortunately, her American Housing and Economic Mobility (AHEM) Act has so far passed.

I think the chances of progressive reform have suffered a huge setback. Democrats did it. They fixed the economy. Things were getting better for working people. And it seems to have made no difference at all to the voters. Several unions even refused to endorse Harris. Their leaders, at least, know that Trump will stiff them. And yet they refused to endorse Harris. Sean O’Brien, President of the Teamsters, even gave a speech at the Republican National Convention.

If there is a progressive movement, it is so poorly organized that it does not even take a united stand against its enemies. It did not unite to support the most progressive administration in decades. If Americans intend to retain even shreds of their freedoms, they must do better.

On the Prospects of a Trump Dictatorship

With a perspective of 10 days after the election, I don’t think Harris’s loss was a result of anything special. The truth of the matter is that, as history shows, the US system is rotten at picking presidents. Trump is going to focus (he has said) on three things: mass deportations, tariffs, and revenge. The other policies will come from people around him.

    Before Trump can become a dictator, Senate Republicans and the Supreme Court will have to be turned into rubber stamps, and they are likely to resist. The coalition that backs Trump also has enormous internal conflicts: the nationalists, the evangelicals, and the techbros all hate each other. Peter Thiel (Vice President elect Vance’s patron) and Elon Musk (who is trying to install himself in the administration without any formal office) hate each other. So there’s going to be chaos and, probably, no clear victor.

    As Dr. Samantha Hancox-Li observed on Bluesky: “actually implementing totalitarianism–aka total state control over all aspects of society–requires an extremely large and efficient bureaucracy, and controlling and maintaining large institutions is itself very difficult.” Trump is an old, probably demented, man who was only ever good at salesmanship. There is the possibility that Trump will be shouldered aside by someone more competent but I think it’s going to be more like Mussolini than Hitler or Stalin. On the other hand, it seems Trump is now living for revenge – he has nothing else. He is going to want to smash things.

    The results of a Trump administration are unpredictable. There are multiple possibilities, none are good but some are less bad. Instead of voting for the lesser evil, we now have to fight for the lesser evil.

“And for my part, I shall not wholly fail of my task, though Gondor should perish, if anything passes through this night that can still grow fair or bear fruit and flower again in days to come.” – Gandalf