Sunday, March 22, 2020

Plaguing the Senate: Things Just Got Real

(This is an update of my 1,000 Plagues on the Senate post; refer to the original for the assumptions used.)

So I reran my model with a current list of Senators.

(I didn't include the frequency numbers this time because I can't figure a simple way to insert them with Excel.)

So, a bit different. The chance that no Senators die is up to 13%, which is bad odds; almost 9 in 10 for at least one death. The chance of one to three Senators dying is now 73%, roughly 3 in 4.

This is about to get real. Senator Rand Paul has tested positive for SARS-nCoV-2. He is thought to have been exposed on March 7ᵗʰ and his test results came back today, March 22ⁿᵈ. He did not self-quarantine and could easily have been contagious for over a week. It is likely that Sen. Paul has exposed the entire Senate to SARS-nCoV-2.

There is a bitter, bitter late Isaac Asimov story, “The Winnowing,” about a scientist who, threatened by some world government council, devises a poison that would reduce the world's population by randomly killing some percentage of the public. Instead, he uses it first on that council, poisoning himself as well, and saying, this was what you wanted, this is what you asked for – wasn't it? And so, here we are.

No comments: