Thursday, January 21, 2010
US Poltical Parties: the Outcome
Pulling out my crystal ball, I will try to make some modest predictions. It seems to me that both current major parties will survive, in dramatically altered forms. Electoral reforms, instant runoff or range voting, are likely to become more and more widespread, and make possible the emergence of at least one new national party. This new party, if it comes into being, is probably going to display characteristics we are already seeing in the emergent coalitions between marginalized US groups: it will probably be vaguely libertarian left. The Republicans, in the new electoral regime, will become the party of the South, and of business-oriented authoritarianism generally. The Democrats may rebuild their coalition, becoming a moderate conservative party, weak on the coasts, but stronger in moderate central states.