A Short Thought on the Mail Bombings

It all seems too pat, you know, exactly what a right-wing crank would do. I keep wondering if they’re going to trace these bombs back to a studio apartment which contains a dead body and a pile of Antifa and Democratic literature, or maybe a stack of Sanders literature. After the election it will be discovered that this was a Russian false flag operation, but by then it will be too late. 

[Late update: but in fact it was a right-wing crazy. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.]

Foreclosures and Voting, Race and Class in the 2016 election

I have here a recently completed study, "Foreclosure’s Fallout: Economic Adversity and Voter Turnout," from Shah and Wichowsky in Wisconsin. The study examines data from Milwaukee, evaluating the likelihood of voting in 2012 depending on whether or not a household was foreclosed on. I will let the authors speak for themselves:

We conclude that homeowners facing foreclosure were less likely to vote in the 2012 presidential election. […] As the wave of foreclosures caught millions of Americans in its wake, it appears that troubled homeowners responded with political quiescence. […] Our results suggest that political elites may have faced less pressure to address the shortcoming and failures of the policies and programs implemented during the foreclosure crisis. [Ellipses are mine.]

Did this quiescence extend to 2016? If so, it likely contributed to Trump's victory. Multiple studies have shown that Trump supporters were motivated by racism. Perhaps there is a second part of the story, where foreclosures and long-term unemployment discouraged other voters.

Ford/Kavanaugh

(Notes and links to a Ford skeptic over at Ian Welsh's blog.)

Yes, I do believe her. Simply on the odds, without anything beyond basic information about the careers and lives of Dr. Ford and Kavanaugh, and their testimony, it is overwhelmingly likely that she told the truth. The law school saying is, “When the facts are with you, pound the facts, when the law is with you, pound the law, when neither are with you, pound the table.” Dr. Ford pounded the facts; Kavanaugh pounded the table.

Beyond that there is other evidence, though the Judiciary Committee Republicans and the Trump administration avoided bringing much of it into testimony. Former sex-crimes prosecutor Allison Leotta, writing in a Time opinion piece, lays out the case:

What’s striking about the Kavanaugh case is that the evidence we saw at the hearing was more significant than what is presented in many criminal trials where a guilty verdict is returned. Dr. Ford’s credible testimony, her statements making this accusation years earlier, and her lack of motive to lie, especially compared to the incentives for her to stay silent, would be legally sufficient to sustain a criminal conviction for attempted rape. And that does not even consider the substantiating evidence provided by Kavanaugh’s friend Mark Judge’s autobiographical novel, Kavanaugh’s own crude yearbook statements and his evasiveness during questioning. If this were a mugging, we might just say “case closed.” But the real shame about Mitchell terming this a “he said she said” case is that here, there are dozens of potential witnesses like Mark Judge who were not called to testify. […] if we are forced to endure the concept of “he said, she said,” we must at the very least look at the other two she’s. – http://time.com/5413814/he-said-she-said-kavanaugh-ford-mitchell/

Election 2018: Revving Up the Culture War

Administration moves:

• Kavanaugh and the pro-rape vote
• The “caravan” from central America
• The new anti-trans policy

All this is working to turn out Republican voters against what would otherwise be a blue wave. It is splitting the anti-Trump-and-Republican coalition as well. With each conflict, the Democrats lose a few more voters, and the Republicans gain a few.

The opposition coalition is weak like cardboard and, challenged, has a tendency to fold like wet cardboard. So here's the Trump administration, spraying water on the cardboard.

Solidarity!

Vote, 2018 Version

It is a curious fact that, even among the opponents of democracy, the vote is considered important. That is why there is so much effort to persuade people not to do it, to persuade people to vote for candidates who can't possibly win, to prop up splitter candidates, to make it difficult to get permission to vote, to revoke people's permission to vote, to lose people's permission to vote, to falsify the vote, to not count the vote, to claim the vote isn't valid. Your vote counts, and your political opponents know it. That's why they don't want you to do it.

And vote downticket! Many state legislatures and governorships are up for grabs and there's a bunch of initiatives too!

Race and Class, Part ∞

(Completely rewritten on the day of posting.)

I would like to see a study asking white voters if they had a long period out of work or lost their homes, or had friends and families who did. I would also like to see a study asking people who turned out in 2008 and 2012 and did not turn out in 2016 the same questions.

The centrists want so desperately to sweep the crash of 2008, largely due to Republican and neo-liberal policies going back to Reagan, and failures of the response to it by the Democratic Party and the Obama administration under the carpet. Out of work for years? Lost your home due to mortgage fraud or abuse? No problem!

Yeah, right.

“You cannot lie to the working class, James, not even once. They will know, and they will never trust you again.” – fictional Friedrich Engels

Tweet to a Never-Trumper

You have advocated horrible things, long before Trump was ever elected. I want to see some signs of shame and repentance.

Or how can I trust you?