The Greater Depression

"WE R F*****. WE R F*****. WE ARE SO F*****. Household Employment Survey: 56-Months Straight of Awful"—Economist Brad Delong expresses dismay at long-term unemployment in somewhat less than academic language.

But Brad, what did you expect? There is no FDR to lead us into recovery, or at least palliate the disease. Instead, our leadership is either passive or actively making it worse.

Paul Krugman has called this the lesser depression. But he was wrong. This is the Greater Depression, and it promises to go on and on.

Thanks, leaders. Thanks to the Republican leadership, who seem to love nothing so much as pain, death, and destruction. Thanks to the Democrats, who didn't fight. And thanks to Obama, who passed up so many opportunities to improve matters.

The Paul-Murray Budget: Centrism Made Visible

The Paul-Murray budget agreement is Centrism made visible.

"Centrism," in the sense defined by Stuart Zechman, is an ideology that claims to represent the moderate path between the extremes of US politics, but in fact is only the average of a far-right to right position. In Centrism, all political language is reinterpreted to make Wall Street conservatism the only logical, moderate, non-ideological course. In Centrism, no matter how far to the right a position is, no matter how destructive, it is the only reasonable compromise.

So let's look at the Paul-Murray budget. The claim is that, since it was negotiated by a Republican and a Democrat, it must be a moderate, reasonable compromise. Paul is far right, and Murray is a fairly conservative Democrat from a liberal state. A compromise between their two positions is necessarily to the right. But it's a compromise! It's a reasonable center position!

Ah, Centrism.

Let's take a closer look at this compromise.

The total amount of the Paul-Murray budget is less than Paul's original proposal.[1] The most important and popular single spending item, a further unemployment insurance extension, has been omitted. There is a little more non-defense discretionary spending than in the original Paul budget, and a little less defense spending, but that's about it. This is somehow a compromise between—between what, exactly? No. It is not a compromise. It is surrender to the right, with a few small concessions to the true center.[2] But it is presented to us as a victory, as a successful compromise. The more outrageous and irrational our politics becomes, the more we hear the Centrist rhetoric of moderate compromise.

With this deal, we see the end of liberal hopes for some years. Centrism is now policy. At least it is now out in the open. Conservatives can scarcely claim the throne does not exist when they are sitting on it. They can claim that the king can do no wrong. They can scream charges of lèse majesté. But even a cat can look at a king.

…or a raven.

Croak!

[1]  O'Brien, "How Paul Ryan Won the Budget War—in 1 Chart," The Atlantic, Dec 13,2013.
[2]  Media Matters "The Progressive Majority."

[updated .01.10 to strengthen the language.]

Why, Conservatives?

[Every now and again these thoughts come to mind. It's time to put them down.]

There's an enormous strangeness at the heart of conservatism.  Conservatives schemed and fought, and won the rule of the most powerful empire the world has ever seen. And what have they done with their power? They fight pointless wars. They crash the global economy. They build a vast and oppressive surveillance state.

They have taken something strong and beautiful, and done their level best to destroy it. How can this even be called conservatism? Nothing of value is being conserved, and much is being destroyed.

Now I know there are individual motivations: greed, paranoia, religious rigidity. But none of these require destruction. I can only conclude that, somehow, beyond ideology and simple human failings, there is a simple love of destruction. It is not hard to see that conservative ideologies have been destructive. Surely the conversion of Iraq into a Shiite state is failure? So is crashing the world economy. Yet, somehow, conservatives go on, working to conserve…nothing, apparently.

Why?

Conservatives have won many victories in the past 30 years. Most of these victories have lead to painful failures. Yet somehow they still want more. It seems that they will not be satisfied until they have destroyed the Union of the United States of America.

[1/8/2014, cleanup and addition]

I think I know. Cortez, it is said, cried when he realized he was going to have destroy Tenochtitlán in order to conquer it: he had wanted to rule the most beautiful city he had ever seen. But he destroyed it, to rule what was left. For these people it is power or nothing.

Talking to My Senators on Unemployment Insurance, Part II

So today I called my Senators, both Democrats, in support of the extension. Their personal web sites are inaccessible from outside the Senate's own offices; I hope there hasn't been an attack.

One Senator's office took my name and zip code; the other didn't even ask. Always good to see the high regard our elected officials give to their constituents.

Talking to My Congressional Delegation on Unemployment Insurance

I live in Washington state, have been out of work for nearly ay year, and the unemployment extension will expire on my birthday. Thanks, Democrats.

I called both my Senators and my House Representative yesterday. Senator Murray's office, lead Democratic negotiator on the budget deal, is on holiday vacation. My rep's office expert on this subject has been furloughed. This leaves Senator Cantwell's office. I got to talk to a staffer who told me that an unemployment extension is not in the current budget, and the next budget will be written in two years. It is possible that there will be an amendment early next year. It doesn't sound like the Senate Democrats have the heart for another government shutdown, though it works in favor of the Democratic party. It appears to me, based on these two contacts, that the Republican budget blackmail has been successful. I await a callback from my Representative's office.

I may never vote for a Democrat in a national election again. If they're not going to stand for me, if they're going to cave—what's the point? And I will support a primary challenge to Senator Murray from the left.

[Added: My House Representative’s office called me back the day after I called. The staffer said that the issue will be raised, and that Pelosi and Obama will join in, though he’s not sure how much of a press Obama will mount. He says the outcome is far from certain. Myself, I think he underestimates Republican intransigence on this issue, and indeed on anything that ameliorates poverty, but I am not going to say anything to discourage him.]

"A depressed economy for workers, but not at all for corporations"

Notes on a Krugman post, "Why Corporations Might Not Mind Moderate Depression" (NYT paywall, Edited from my remarks over there.)

Are we perhaps in a bubble again? Military production, maintained by tax money worldwide, that is real production. But how much of the "good" economy for corporations is due to pushing money around, rather than making anything real—a bubble economy? Or is the appearance of a good economy perhaps the result of converting productive capital into the wealth of rich—the kind of anti-capitalism that made Mitt Romney wealthy?

I am not sure there is more to be looted from the former good economy of the West, but if there is, I am sure someone somewhere has figured out how to loot it.

[2014.01.07 Editorial cleanup. .08: "somewhere" added.]

Bitcoin and the unregulated economy or wtf, libertarians, again?

More from the Bitcoin discussion.

What is it with libertarians? We live in a world in unregulated trading has crashed the global economy and still libertarians ask for more data and more experiments. It is like climate denialism. Enough, already. Keynesian economics has passed numerous experimental tests. Time to accept it and move on.

I worry about (to misquote myself) an economy like a climate system, with arbitrary and unpredictable weather, vast storms, freezes, burns, droughts. This isn't a maybe thing; we know that without fiscal and monetary policy that is what we will get. And the very wealthy can work that system in their favor, so that only they will be able to save. And that is one possible future, and it ends with our civilization drowned.

Seriously, libertarians, wtf?