On AI As a Tool in a Very Large Confidence Game

 Over at the sister blog, Shinycroak:

I’ve been aware for decades that many people take voluble confidence as a sign of knowledge – it is how so many people can be got to take ideas from fiction as models for their behavior –, but it is frightening to see how generative ML models and the organizations that operate them can take advantage of this. If, as I suspect, the entire point of making these systems public is a very large confidence game, the way cryptocurrency is a very large Ponzi scheme, what then? Will there be an awakening? – Why ChatGPT?

The High Crimes of the Roberts Court

Treason, in the US Constitution, is narrowly defined.

Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort. No person shall be convicted of treason unless on the testimony of two witnesses to the same overt act, or on confession in open court.

Reflections on the Life of a Communist Publisher

Gross, Babette. Willi Münzenberg: A Political Biography. Translated by Marian Jackson. East Lansing: Michigan State University Press, 1974.

As part of what seems to be becoming a study of historical parallels, I’ve reread Babette Gross’ biography of the Communist publisher Willi Muenzenberg.

Muenzenberg and his work

Muenzenberg was an important figure whose influence is not widely understood. Muenzenberg, as one of the inventors of modern mass media propaganda, shaped the Western understanding of communism in the 1920s and 30s. The outage over the Sacco and Vanzetti trial? His work. Alternate trials of accused German Communists in the 1930s? His work. Promulgation of the claim that the Nazis set the Reichstag fire? His work. 1930s anti-fascism? Largely Muenzenberg’s work.

Early notes on the political response to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump

As Jim Wright says, “Don't make it worse. Don't spread rumors and speculation. Regard all unconfirmed reports with skepticism. Await more validated information.” So instead, I am looking at historical, not to mention hysterical, parallels.

The reactions I am seeing remind me of the historical reaction to the Reichstag fire. As far as anyone knows for certain, the fire was set by a lone wolf terrorist, but the Nazis immediately claimed it was the result of a Communist! Conspiracy! and the Communists claimed it was a Nazi! Conspiracy! To this day no-one knows if either claim is true.

The following day, German chancellor Paul von Hindenburg issued the Reichstag Fire Decree (similar to an executive order in the USA), severely limiting German civil liberties. Mass arrests of German Communists followed. A month after the fire, the Reichstag passed the Enabling Act of 1933, transferring law-making authority to the Nazi-dominated German cabinet. This is analogous to, though not exactly the same as, the Trump v. United States Supreme Court decision.

Which leaves us – where?

I think we can expect some sort of authoritarian response on the part of the House Republican Conference. The Senate Democratic majority is small, and some members might break and vote with Republicans. Would Senate Majority Leader Schumer filibuster such a bill against his own caucus? President Biden is likely to veto it, and I doubt there would be the votes to override a veto. Still, the fear of death might produce actions we cannot foresee.

The various Trump-supporting factions of the public: “Constitutional” sheriffs, paramilitaries, and so on, will be up in arms. I think we can expect intensified police action against protesters, regardless of the law.

Finally, the effect on Trump himself. Has he ever actually engaged in physical combat? There is going to be some effect, probably dramatic, and he is not a peaceful man.

PS: There were threats directed at the press at the rally. I think there will be more threats against Trump's critics. Republican leaders are already asking that charges against Trump be dropped and various media figures are advising Democrats to tone down the rhetoric.

Notes on Trump v. United States

“It is folly to think that the triumph of evil could ever be a winning side, in the sense of anyone's gaining anything by it.” – James Blish

This past Fourth I celebrated the fight to restore democracy, the fight to end the imperial presidency, and the hope of a second reconstruction.

The Court's right wing, or at least their patrons, knows that Trump has already committed serious crimes, and that is why they have ruled in favor of broad presidential immunity. One immediate consequence of the Trump immunity decision is that the Trump campaign no longer has to spend money on Trump's legal defense.

Under Trump v. US, a President will be able to loot the treasury with impunity. Trump has also been immunized against treason, which he has likely committed. Just as the biggest beneficiaries of Citizens United have been wealthy foreign governments, the biggest beneficiary here may well be Russia. Biden is now more or less in the position of Lincoln. I hope he rises to the occasion. We now have a constitutional crisis which will not be resolved by the Courts. We need a Second Reconstruction and Second Reconstruction constitutional amendments. But first, we have to get through this constitutional crisis.

Presidential immunity is mostly of value to a president who commits crimes. The rule of law cannot be restored by breaking the law. We are now operating in a space where there is no law and, assuming we win, we will have to put everything back together when we are done, a second reconstruction.

John Roberts' place in history is secure. I think I'll start calling him Roger Taney II.

Short Review: Waxman, The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Waxman, Dov. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press, 2019.

This book by a US political science professor who specializes in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is part of the Oxford University Press What Everyone Needs To Know^® series of FAQs on contemporary issues. It is an introduction to the history of the conflict, presented in FAQ, that is, question-and-answer, format. The book is divided into five chapters: “The Basics,” “The Beginning of the Conflict,” “The Arab-Israeli Wars,” “The Peace Process,” “The Occupied Territories.” In addition, there is a section of maps, an introduction, and a concluding section titled “The Long Road to Peace.” The Oxford University Press web page lists a “Suggestions for Further Reading” section in the contents, which seems to have been omitted from my copy.

The book overall is a straightforward backgrounder. Prof. Waxman has made an effort to include both Palestinian and Jewish perspectives. As a non-expert, I can only say that I do not see obvious contradictions between Waxman’s account and what I have read in the news. I would have liked to see more of the Arab, Palestinian, and Islamic thinking on the matter, but given that none of the various Arab states, let alone Palestine, have either a free press or freedom of speech, that is probably not available. For all of Israel’s faults, policy debates there take place in the open. This is not the case in much of the Arab or Islamic world.

I highly recommend the book to everyone who has only learned of the conflict in the US press, or through the propaganda of one side or the other.

2024.06.01: Aid to Gaza

As for According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), aid to Gaza is still not being distributed.

 “We continue to insist that Israeli authorities’ obligation under the law to facilitate delivery of aid does not stop at the border, it does not stop when you drop off just a few metres across the border and then drive away and then leave it to humanitarians to drive through active combat zones - which they cannot do - to pick it up. So to answer your question, no, the aid that is getting in, is not getting to the people.”

The Gaza floating pier is still shut down by unseasonable weather; it has been towed to Ashdod, Israel for repairs, which are expected to take perhaps a week.

Neo-Feudalism, Anti-Capitalism

Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. The measure of success attained by Wall Street, regarded as an institution of which the proper social purpose is to direct new investment into the most profitable channels in terms of future yield, cannot be claimed as one of the outstanding triumphs of laissez-faire capitalism — which is not surprising, if I am right in thinking that the best brains of Wall Street have been in fact directed towards a different object. – Keynes

CDC Covid Background Review

“Covid is not the same [as other respiratory viruses] due to its cardiovascular and thromboembolic effects leading to stroke, MI’s [heart attack], long Covid.” – Dr. Peter Hotez on X.

This is about the the CDC’s Background for CDC’s Updated Respiratory Virus Guidance as it relates to covid-19. In short, the CDC has decided that they are going to treat SARS-2, the virus which causes covid, as a seasonal respiratory virus, similar to flu and RSV. As Dr. Hotez, says, it is not.

The document is, generally, a fine piece of deceptive writing. It contains no obvious falsehoods, and yet it ends up by making a disease causing 7,000 excess deaths a month since July 2022¹ sound like something minor and under control.

Fearful Symmetry: the Netanyahu government and the leadership of Hamas

Josh Marshall, writing in his paywalled editor's blog on Talking Points Memo, points out that Netanyahu's position is ever more shaky. He isn't even trying to get Hamas' hostages released, and their families are angry with him. (It doesn't help that the families are mostly leftist kibbutzniks and hate him anyway.) Israelis are out in the streets again. The Israeli Supreme Court has decided that Haredi (ultra-orthodox) Jews are no longer exempt from the draft and the Haredi parties make up a quarter of Netanyahu's coalition.

So Netanyahu's coalition is breaking up.

Reviewing the CDC’s Respiratory Virus Guidance with Regard to Covid

The document, Respiratory Virus Guidance is available at https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/guidance/respiratory-virus-guidance.html. Background information on the Guidance, explaining the reasoning that underpins it is at https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/background/index.html.

To my surprise, I found there is a great deal to like in it, though also some considerable problems. I wish it were stronger and compliance is, to put it mildly, poor, but it seems to be the first attempt to provide unified national public health advice on respiratory viruses and there is some good advice here. It is still limited, however, and especially poor on control of covid.

In Defense of Law and the "Rules-based international order"

It is better that the rules-based international order – law – exist than that it not exist. On the other side of that order are Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán, and, yes, Donald Trump. Also on the other side are Benjamin Netanyahu and Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar.

Like love we don't know where or why,
Like love we can't compel or fly,
Like love we often weep,
Like love we seldom keep.
– WH Auden, “Law Like Love”

Over on the sister blog: The General Intelligence of Robots

 About artificial intelligence, measuring intelligence, and AI hype.

The General Intelligence of Robots

Biden as Scapegoat

Biden is, yet again, being scapegoated. Perhaps this is propaganda that this is being pushed by some group; it is striking the way Biden gets no credit for his genuine successes, while every failure is magnified.

Israel, Palestine, and the World: Fractally Bad

I open a book and get a report on future events that even God would like to file and forget. - Philip K Dick