Sunday, April 9, 2017

President Trump Will Get His War

Syria and North Korea. Trump rattles his saber and expects his opponents to back down.

That trick never works. The only way to win a war is to fight it; posturing does not lead to victory.

But it can start wars. Diplomats answer threats with threats and the verbal conflicts escalate until, finally, all parties can see no other choices but to fight. Add to that the brutal treatment of immigrants and refugees under the Trump administration, the trade policies of the Trump administration, and the diplomatic incompetence of the Trump administration. The USA is making many enemies. So I think some of the talk will eventually turn to action. It may be in some place we don't expect; Yemen is a festering conflict, Ukraine is very much at risk. (Not at all coincidentally, both centers of the global fossil energy business.)

It seems likely to me that President Trump will get his war.


The Blog Fodder said...

Whether you believe or don't believe that fossil fuels are the cause of our current climate changes, there are so many good reasons to stop using it. Might it bring some measure of peace to the world? It would certainly stop destruction of the environment on large scale.

Raven Onthill said...

Well, I agree.


reason said...

It seems to me that what Trump underestimates is not the power relationships but the willingness to fight. Minor conflicts a long way a way will never be major issues for the US, but they loom awfully large for the population that lives there. Trump may have enjoyed success in the past by escalating every conflict (since he is much richer than everybody else) but as president he is not acting alone, and the first body bag is a potential political disaster for him. Terrorist reprisal is also a disaster waiting to happen. For every Geddafi that will back down, there are ten IS's that will retalliate.